Managing emgering risk : the capstone of preparedness / Kevin Burton.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Imagine this -- The new face of risk and the market state -- Scenario planning, strategy, and risk assessments for an unknown future -- Sources of data for first event scenarios -- Tracking memes: data trends and the diffusion of innovation -- Coolhunters and pattern recognition -- Putting the market state to use, application, practice, and understanding -- Tracking memes: data trends and the diffusion of innovation -- Engaging in a new state of practice.

The book begins by presenting a series of fictitious scenarios each resulting in mass destruction and fatalities. These are each followed by actual news stories that support the scenarios and demonstrate that the proposed events{u2014}seemingly unthinkable{u2014}have the potential to occur. Next, the author identifies two drivers in the practice of emergency management and general preparedness today that constitute our view of the future and the new face of risk. The first is the Disaster Halo Effect{u2014}the idea that modern threats exhibit more than one event. The second is the worldview of our nation as a Market State focused on the trading of goods, services, and ideas among the nation-states. The book also reviews the history of preparedness and discusses its relationship with large-scale threats, establishing that hindsight bias has hurt our ability to plan and respond to the unexpected. The chapters that follow explore what is needed to better cultivate, design, develop, and operate emerging management and preparedness thinking in the current environment. Each chapter begins with key terms and objectives and ends with thought-provoking questions. Introducing a new paradigm of thought that takes into account the chief influencers of global threats, the book arms emergency and business operations managers with the ammo needed to successfully confront emerging threats in the 21st century.