OECD economic outlook. 92 (November 2012) / Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Table of contents; Summary of projections; Editorial: The policy challenges: Now and in the long term; Chapter 1. General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation; Summary; Introduction; Table 1.1. The global recovery will gain momentum only slowly; Key forces acting; Figure 1.1. OECD recoveries compared; Box 1.1. Spillovers from the euro area crisis on emerging market economies; The estimated direct impact of exports to the euro area on GDP growth; First year decline in GDP in euro-only adverse shock; Figure 1.2. Business sentiment is weak in many economies.

Figure 1.3. Financial constraints on euro area business activity are elevatedFigure 1.4. Consumer confidence is soft; Table 1.2. Housing market developments remain mixed; Figure 1.5. House price-to-rent ratios differ considerably across countries; Figure 1.6. Non-oil commodity price developments have diverged; Figure 1.7. Aggregate financial conditions have improved; Figure 1.8. The degree of stock market rebound differs; Figure 1.9. The cost of credit among euro area countries has diverged; The near-term projections and risks; Box 1.2. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections.

Figure 1.10. Inflation pressures are likely to remain moderateFigure 1.11. Actual and predicted changes in unemployment rates; Table 1.3. OECD labour market conditions are diverging; Figure 1.12. Considerable labour market slack is set to persist; Table 1.4. World trade will strengthen only gradually; Figure 1.13. Little further progress in reducing global imbalances is foreseen; Figure 1.14. GDP growth and estimated stall speeds; Box 1.3. Stall speeds; Euro area vulnerabilities; Box 1.4. Policies to ease euro area rebalancing.

Current account balances in euro area countries under financial market pressureFigure 1.15. Euro area unit labour costs are adjusting; Figure 1.16. Export market performance is improving in some countries; Box 1.5. Estimated additional capital needs in large euro area banks; The euro area banking system: Core Tier-1 capital additions required to reach 5% of total assets in each large bank; Box 1.6. A stylised downside scenario in the euro area; A stylised euro area downside scenario: macroeconomic model simulation results; Figure 1.17. GDP growth in the baseline and a downside scenario.

Macroeconomic and financial policiesTable 1.5. Fiscal positions will improve only slowly; Figure 1.18. Expenditure versus revenue-based consolidation plans; Box 1.7. The redistributive impact of tax and transfer-based consolidation; Impact of 3% consolidation on income inequality; Bibliography; Chapter 2. Developments in individual OECD contries; United States; Japan; Euro area; Germany; France; Italy; United Kingdom; Canada; Australia; Austria; Belgium; Chile; Czech Republic; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; Greece; Hungary; Iceland; Ireland; Israel; Korea; Luxembourg; Mexico; Netherlands.

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances. Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, chapters summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country and an extensive statistical annex.