Interpreting congressional elections : the curious case of the incumbency effect / Jeffrey M. Stonecash, Syracuse University.

Includes bibliographical references (pages 204-232) and index.

Part I. A conventional wisdom and its importance. The fortunes of incumbents and interpreting political change -- Vanishing marginals, a research agenda, and political responsiveness -- Part II. The data and doubts. The basics : percentages, averages, and careers -- The presidential-house election connection issue -- The Gelman-King estimation (and the role of open seats) -- Part III. The role and emergence of a paradigm. The puzzle and an interpretative framework : Kuhn -- Embracing one paradigm and discarding another -- A consensus and normal science -- Embracing and sustaining a paradigm : why? -- Part IV. An alternative. An alternative framework and analysis -- Paradigms and understanding American politics.