Strategic calculations: Iran’s negotiating strategy in the JCPOA / Fatmah Alzeyoudi

Includes bibliographical references (pages 129 - 149).

Introduction -- Literature Review -- 1. Iranian Nuclear Decision-Making -- Iranian Leadership Structures -- The JCPOA Negotiations: Understanding Power Structures -- Nuclear Decision-Making: Iran's Strategic Culture. -- 2. Iran's Historical Approach to Negotiations. -- Iranian Negotiation Tactics: Key Case Studies. -- 3. Iran's Approach to the Nuclear Negotiations -- History of Iranian Negotiating Behavior (2015-2023) -- Iran and the IAEA: Cooperation and Negotiation -- 4. Characteristics of Iran's Negotiating Strategy -- Strategic Features of Iranian Negotiation.. -- Key Takeaways -- Conclusion

This study offers in-depth analysis of Iran’s negotiating behavior at a critical moment for diplomacy, both regionally and on the international stage. With a research focus on the history and development of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) from 2015 to 2023, the author examines the key factors shaping Tehran’s approach to negotiations, as a unique combination of ideology, history, and strategic patience defines, and often limits, global efforts to contain its nuclear ambitions. Moving beyond conventional narratives of nuclear diplomacy, the study positions Iran’s approach as an extension of its strategic culture, driven by the singular pursuit of regime security. Iran’s negotiating style, marked by delay, ambiguity and coercive leverage, is shown to be rooted in perceptions of encirclement, reactions to foreign intervention, and ideological resistance. Detailed analysis of Iran’s leadership structures, decision-making processes and power dynamics, dominated by the Supreme Leader and the pervasive influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, offer fresh insights into a political system designed to preserve leverage and insulate the ruling regime. The book charts the evolution of the JCPOA from its conception under Presidents Obama and Rouhani, to its unraveling under Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign, and Biden’s stalled revival attempts. Particularly instructive is the study’s contrast of Western diplomatic assumptions with Iran’s methodical approach, stressing the need for negotiators to equip themselves with a comprehensive working knowledge of Iranian negotiating tactics, as Tehran has redefined compliance and exploited loopholes to advance its nuclear objectives. Broadening the analysis, Iran’s negotiating strategy on a range of disputes is considered, from Kuwait’s Dorra gas field and Afghanistan’s Helmand River, to the UAE’s three occupied islands. The case studies reveal patterns ranging from recurring tactics of stalling and ambiguity, to invoking historical claims to gain political advantage. Bridging political theory and diplomatic practice, this study is of particular value to policymakers, diplomats, and scholars, in a synthesis of the inner workings of Iran’s political system and its negotiation tactics. For the Gulf region and particularly the UAE, it offers salient lessons on patience, precision, and the power dynamics behind the art of negotiation.