Transnational threats from the Middle East : crying wolf or crying havoc? / Anthony H. Cordesman.

"May 31, 1999."

"Presented originally at the U.S. Army War College--Pepperdine University cosponsored conference on Mediterranean security into the coming millennium, held October 26-27, 1998, in Florence, Italy"--P. volume.

Includes bibliographical references.

Real and potential threats -- Dangers of region-wide generalizations -- Narcotics and organized crime -- Immigration -- "Conventional" terrorism -- Appendix A. Major Middle Eastern terrorist groups -- Proliferation and long-range missile strikes -- Appendix B. Threat posed by proliferation in the Middle East -- Appendix C. Iraqi break out capabilities -- Terrorism and weapons of mass destruction -- Appendix D. Challenge terrorism and unconventional warfare pose to the west -- Appendix E. Attack scenarios: "Dr. Ben No" and "Professor Abu Moriarity" at work in the Middle East -- Appendix F. Counterproliferation policy options -- Appendix F. Counterproliferation policy options -- Appendix G. Possible force improvements affecting counterproliferation policy -- Energy dependence -- Conclusions.