Building security in the Persian Gulf / Robert E. Hunter.

Includes bibliographical references (pages 159-175).

"RAND National Security Research Division."

The basic framework -- Background and context -- The core challenges for a new security architecture -- Elements of security reassurance -- The Arab-Israeli conflict -- Regional tensions, crises, and conflicts -- Roles of other external actors -- Building blocks for a regional security structure -- Arms control and confidence-building measures -- Conclusions and recommendations -- Appendix: Documents.

Following the war in Iraq, the United States, along with its allies and friends, faces the need to define a new, long-term strategy for the Persian Gulf region. The United States' continued, indeed permanent, engagement in the region has already been determined by its interests, but many elements must be considered and questions answered, including the following: --What are the best strategy and approach to promoting long-term security and stability in the region in a manner consonant with the basic interests of the United States, its allies and partners, and participating regional countries? --What means can be found to reduce the long-term burdens imposed on the United States by its involvement in the region in terms of military engagement, risks and expenses, and opportunity costs? --Can Iran be drawn productively into security arrangements for the Persian Gulf, or will it decide instead to challenge security in the region? --What regional security structure can be developed with the potential to include all regional countries and provide lasting value? To answer these questions, the author analyzes the future of Iraq, the role of Iran, asymmetric threats (including terrorism), regional reassurance, the Arab-Israeli conflict, regional tensions, and the roles of other external actors. The work recommends criteria, parameters, potential models and partners, arms-control and confidence-building measures, and specific steps in diplomacy and military commitments for a new security structure for the Persian Gulf region that can meet U.S. interests at a reduced cost and gain the support of the American people.