Analyzing public policy : concepts, tools, and techniques / Dipak K. Gupta.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

1. Reason, Rationality, and Public Policy: The Puzzle of Human Behavior Government in Our Lives Politics and Rationality The World of the 2Rational Fool3 Government{u2019}s Goals and Their Impact on Public Policy 2. The Analysts: Their Role and Their Tools The Prince and the Pundits: Analysts, Academics, and Advocates The Use of Quantitative Techniques in Public Policy Analysis Structure above a Swamp: Public Policy Analysis and Professional Ethics 3. Government and the Market The Fundamental Contributions of Economic Analyses Market Failure: Why Government Interferes in a Free Market Government Failure Limiting Government Intervention: Joint Partnership in a Mixed Economy 4. The Policy Process Agenda Setting Policy Formulation Policy Adoption Policy Implementation Policy Evaluation Policy Change Policy Termination 5. Critical Thinking and Research Design Five Steps of Objective Analysis Setting Goals Choosing a Method of Analysis Choosing the Right Model Forecasting Outcomes and Unintended Consequences Designing Policy Research Challenges to Critical Thinking: Biases in Reasoning A Few Parting Suggestions 6. Basic Statistics Numbers as Storytellers Methods of Descriptive Statistics 7. Probability and Hypothesis Testing Objective Probability Subjective Probability 8. Sources of Data What Are We Measuring? Primary Data: Conducting a Survey Quantification of Survey Data Reporting Survey Results Conducting Focus Groups Secondary Data 9. Making Sense of Numbers A Picture{u2019}s Worth: The Graphical Methods of Analysis To Tell the Truth and Nothing but the Truth Those Not-so-Innocent Numbers 10. Projection Techniques: When History Is Inadequate Projection versus Causal Prediction Inadequacy of History Judgmental Methods of Projection 11. Projection Techniques: Analysis of Historical Data The Components of a Data Series The Patterns of Time Trends Adjustment Methods Smoothing Out the Fluctuations 12. Projection Techniques: The Method of Least Squares The Logic of the Least Squares Method Linear Time Trend: Simple Regression Model Trend Changes: Building Multiple Regression Models Gradual Changes in Trend: Estimation of Nonlinear Trends Forecasting and Its Problems Explaining the Present with the Past: Lagged Dependent Variables 13. The Elements of Strategic Thinking: Decision Tree and Game Theory Getting a Grip on Uncertainty Decision Making and Expected Payoff The Decision Tree Two Active Players: Game Theory Strategies to Overcome the Prisoner{u2019}s Dilemma Other Strategies: Trust and Bargaining 14. Choosing the Best Alternative: Benefit-Cost Analysis Social versus Private Cost-Benefit Analysis Defining Goals Identifying Alternatives Listing the Costs and Benefits of the Alternatives Estimation and Valuation of Benefits and Costs Introduction of Time: Present Value Analysis Choosing the Best Alternative 15. So, You Want to Be An Analyst? Some Practical Suggestions Before You Start Begin Your Analysis Tell a Good Story: Effective Presentation Whose Ball Is It Anyway? Zen and the Art of Public Policy Analysis

Solving complex policy issues requires an analyst to balance constituents{u2019} needs with the political and economic realities of governance. In Gupta{u2019}s foundational text, each concept{u2014}whether it{u2019}s research design, forecasting, or cost-benefit analysis{u2014}is illustrated with recent cases such as the 2008 banking crisis and a GAO report on poverty, allowing students to master a skill and understand its real world application. Expanded coverage of the issues of measurement that arise in economic analyses helps to emphasize the subjective considerations within the decision-making process. New chapters include coverage of the social goals of public policy and how to reconcile divergent views of analysts and policymakers. Students benefit from tables, figures, key terms, and exercises, and instructor{u2019}s resources include these graphics in electronic format and a solutions manual