Calculating credibility : how leaders assess military threats / Daryl G. Press.

1st published by Cornell in 2005.

Includes bibliographical references (pages [163]-212) and index.

1. Theories of credibility -- 2. The "appeasement" crises : German assessments of British and French credibility, 1938-39 -- 3. Crises over Berlin : American and British assessments of Soviet credibility, 1958-61 -- 4. Missiles in Cuba : American assessments of Soviet credibility, 1962 -- 5. Conclusion.

"Calculating Credibility examines - and ultimately rejects - a fundamental belief held by laypeople and the makers of American foreign policy: the notion that backing down during a crisis reduces a country's future credibility. Fear of diminished credibility motivated America's costly participation in the Korean and Vietnam wars, and, since the end of the Cold War, this concern has continued to guide American policy decisions. Daryl G. Press uses historical evidence, including declassified documents, to answer two crucial questions: When a country backs down in a crisis, does its credibility suffer? How do leaders assess their adversaries' credibility? Press illuminates the decision-making processes behind events such as the crises in Europe that preceded World War II, the superpower showdowns over Berlin in the 1950s and 60s, and the Cuban Missile Crisis."--BOOK JACKET.