Turkey’s Horn of Africa policy: determinants and strategic shifts under the AKP / Obaid Salem Alzaabi

Includes bibliographical references (pages 79 - 89)

Introduction -- 1. Literature Review -- 1.1 Theoretical Framework -- 2. Methodology.. -- 3. A Historical Overview: Turkey's Relations with the HoA and Africa -- 3.1 Ottoman Legacy: Relations Before 1923 -- 3.2 From Empire to Republic: Relations Post-1923 -- 4. AKP Era: Turkey's relations with Africa and the Horn. -- 4.1 A New Chapter: Turkey's Engagement in the HoA -- 5. Determinants of TFP towards the HoA -- 5.1. The AKP Identity: Neo-Ottomanism and Islam -- 5.2. Turkey's National Role Conception and the Geostrategic Importance of the Horn of Africa -- 5.3. Domestic political dynamics – Conclusion.

Over the past two decades, Turkey’s foreign policy has undergone a profound transformation, marked by an assertive turn towards Africa. Once peripheral to Ankara’s diplomatic agenda, the continent has evolved into a central pillar of a broader strategy that encompasses previously overlooked regions and territories. This shift represents a dual purpose as President Erdoğan strives to restore Turkey’s regional and global influence, while consolidating his own domestic authority. As a result, Turkey’s engagement with Sub-Saharan Africa has intensified significantly, representing a major departure from the traditional, more cautious and Western-focused foreign policy that long prevailed, as a more assertive Turkish vision for the 21st century emerges. This study unpacks that transformation, through in-depth analysis of Ankara’s engagement in the Horn of Africa, as a strategic extension of the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) worldview. Drawing on extensive research and case study analysis, the author demonstrates how Turkey’s foreign policy has transitioned from humanitarian outreach to geopolitical projection, anchored in an ideology that combines Neo-Ottoman identity and Erdoğan’s framing of Turkey as a “central country” in global affairs. To gain a deeper understanding of this foreign policy evolution, the author explores key domestic political shifts, from the AKP’s consolidation of power and sidelining of the military, to the rupture with the Gülen movement—reshaping decision-making structures in the country.
Case study analysis charts Turkey’s deepening footprint in Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea, highlighting how soft-power tools, from building mosques and schools, to humanitarian diplomacy, have paved the way for hard-power engagement, including Ankara’s first African military base and drone exports. A key theme throughout the study focuses on the intersection of identity, leadership perception and domestic dynamics, which converge to drive Turkey’s strategy in one of the world’s most contested maritime corridors, through the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab. This comprehensive study offers policymakers and scholars an essential guide to understanding the interplay between ideology, strategy, and ambition in modern Turkish foreign policy, as well as the implications for the Middle East, Gulf, and beyond.