Birth quake : the baby boom and its aftershocks / Diane J. Macunovich.

Includes bibliographical references (pages 283-296) and indexes.

Overview: The Birth Quake and Its Aftershocks -- Pt. 1. Defining Concepts and Terms. 1. Population Growth and Relative Cohort Size. 2. Male Relative Income and Its Significance. 3. Defining Variables: Relative Cohort Size and Relative Income -- Pt. 2. First-Order Effects of Changing Relative Cohort Size. 4. Patterns of Male Relative Income over the Years. 5. First-Order Effects of Relative Cohort Size: Long-Term Trends in Unemployment, Relative Income, and Returns to College. 6. Effects of Relative Cohort Size on Inequality and the Overall Structure of Wages -- Pt. 3. Second-Order Effects of Changing Relative Cohort Size. 7. Women's Roles: Labor Force Participation and the Emergence of the "Career Woman" 8. Boom and Bust Cycles in College Enrollment Rates. 9. Effects of Changing Male Relative Income on Marriage and Divorce. 10. The Disappearance of the Marriage Wage Premium. 11. Relative Cohort Size and Fertility: The Boom Turns into a Bust.

12. Relative Cohort Size Effects - Even in Developing Countries -- Pt. 4. Third-Order Effects of Changing Relative Cohort Size. 13. Aggregate Demand Effects of Changing Population Age Structure. 14. Population-Induced Economic Slumps. 15. Macroeconomic Correlations: GDP Growth, Inflation, Savings Rates, and the Stock Market. 16. Conclusion. App. A. Expectations in the Williams College Class of 1999 -- App. B. Data for Figure 4.1.

Between 1965 and 1985, the Western world and the United States in particular experienced a staggering amount of social and economic change. In Birth Quake, Diane J. Macunovich argues that the common thread underlying all these changes was the post-World War II baby boom{u2014}in particular, the passage of the baby boomers into young adulthood. Macunovich focuses on the pervasive effects of changes in "relative cohort size," the ratio of young to middle-aged adults, as masses of young people tried to achieve the standard of living to which they had become accustomed in their parents' homes despite dramatic reductions in their earning potential relative to that of their parents. Macunovich presents the results of detailed empirical analyses that illustrate how varied and important cohort effects can be on a wide range of economic indicators, social factors, and even on more tumultuous events including the stock market crash of 1929, the "oil shock" of 1973, and the "Asian flu" of the 1990s. Birth Quake demonstrates that no discussion of business or economic trends can afford to ignore the effects of population.