Simple models to explore deterrence and more general influence in the war with al-Qaeda / Paul K. Davis.

"RAND National Defense Research Institute."

Includes bibliographical references (pages 29-34).

Introduction -- Modeling Decisionmaking to Think About Influence -- A System View of the Problem -- Motivation of Terrorists and Their Supporters -- Affecting the Decisionmaking and Behavior of Terrorist Systems -- Some Next Steps.

Simple, conceptual models can be used to help guide thinking about how to deter or to otherwise influence potential, actual, or disengaging terrorists and the many people who support their organizations directly or indirectly. Deterring terrorism is best approached as part of a broad effort to influence all elements of a terrorist system, and simple, conceptual models of decisionmaking can help in understanding how to affect others' behavior. The paper lays out a theory of how to use influence (including deterrence) to affect elements of a terrorist system, touching on root causes, individual motivation, public support, and likely factors in the decisionmaking of terrorist organizations.