Iran's nuclear future : critical U.S. policy choices / Lynn E. Davis ... [and others]

Includes bibliographical references.

"Prepared for the United States Air Force."

"Rand Project Air Force."

"MG-1087-AF"--P. [4] of cover.

Also available online.

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- Figures -- Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Chapter One Introduction -- Study Objectives and Scope -- Analysis Framework for the New Strategic Environment -- Step 1: Conduct Regional Analyses -- Step 2: Define Ways to Achieve U.S. Goals for Nuclear Dissuasion, Deterrence, and Reassurance -- Step 3: Define and Assess Critical U.S. Policy Choices -- Step 4: Describe U.S. Air Force Contributions -- How Our Analytical Approach Differs from Others -- Organization of This Monograph -- Chapter Two Influencing Iran -- Irans National Security Interests -- Ensuring Regime Survival -- Protecting the Homeland Against All External Threats -- Expanding Regional Influence -- Can Iran Be Expected to Act Rationally? -- Irans Nuclear Program: Prospects and Uncertainties -- Internal Debate on the Future of Irans Nuclear Program -- Chapter Three Dissuading Iran from Nuclear Weaponization -- Iranian Actions That the United States Wishes to Dissuade -- Current U.S. Policies Toward Irans Nuclear Program -- Critical U.S. Policy Choices -- Raise Costs -- Provide Incentives -- Conclusion -- Chapter Four Deterring a Nuclear-Armed Iran -- Irans Military Behavior and Planning -- Historical Military Behavior -- Military Doctrine -- Conventional Capabilities -- Military Exercises -- Paths to Conflict -- Conflict in Response to International Pressures and Actions Perceived as Acts of War -- Conflict in Response to a U.S. or Israeli Attack Against IransNuclear Facilities -- Conflict to Expand Regional Influence or Consolidate Domestic Power -- Irans Potential Use of Nuclear Weapons -- Current U.S. Policies and Capabilities -- Policy Choices for Deterring Irans Use of Nuclear Weapons Against U.S. Military Forces -- Deter by Managing Conflict Escalation -- Deter by Raising the Costs of Using Nuclear Weapons by Threat of Retaliation -- Deter by Denying Iran the Benefits of Using Nuclear Weapons -- Policy Choices for Deterring Irans Use of Nuclear Weapons Against U.S. Regional Partners -- Conclusion -- Chapter Five Reassuring U.S. Regional Partners -- The Setting -- Views of the GCC States -- Views of Israel -- Current U.S. Policies for Reassurance -- U.S. Reassurance Goal: Ensure Confidence in Credibility of a U.S. Nuclear Deterrent -- Explicit and Public Security Guarantees -- U.S. Conventional Forces -- U.S. Nuclear-Related Military Activities -- U.S. Nuclear Guarantee -- Conclusion -- Chapter Four Approaches to Influencing Iran -- Approaches to Influencing Iran -- Chapter : 7 -- Air Force Contributions and Preparing for the Future -- The Way Ahead -- Appendixes -- A. Context for U.S. Reassurance Strategies: GCC -- B. Context for U.S. Reassurance Strategies: Israel -- Bibliography.

As Iran's nuclear program evolves, U.S. decisionmakers will confront a series of critical policy choices involving complex considerations and policy trade-offs. These policy choices could involve dissuading Iran from developing nuclear weapons; deterring Iran from using its nuclear weapons, if it were to acquire them; and reassuring U.S. regional partners. The U.S. Air Force will need to prepare to carry out whatever policies are chosen.