Managing global growth risks and commodity price shocks : vulnerabilities and policy challenges for low-income countries / a staff team led by Stefania Fabrizio.

At head of title: Strategy, Policy, and Review Department.

Includes bibliographical references (pages 71-73).

Preface -- Key points -- 1. Macroeconomic Situation -- 2. Vulnerability Analysis -- 3. Macroeconomic Policy Challenges -- Boxes: 2.1. Assessing Vulnerabilities in LICs: Concepts and Approaches; 3.1. Policy Measures During the 2008 Food and Fuel Price Shocks: Country Experiences; 3.2. Impact of Global Commodity Prices on LIC Inflation -- Appendixes: 1. List of Low-Income Countries; 2. Selected Economic Indicators; 3. How Do Global Commodity Prices Behave? A View from the Literature; 4. Methodology for Vulnerability Indicator Underlying the Growth Decline Model; 5. Methodology of the Tail-Risk Scenario of Higher Global Commodity Prices; 6. Methodology of the Tail-Risk Scenario of Lower Global Growth; 7. Methodology to Assess the Poverty Impact of Higher Food and Fuel Prices; 8. Monetary Policy Responses to Food and Fuel Price Shocks in Low-Income Countries.

"As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities"--Provided by publisher.

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